PT Sinamon Group Indonesia

12-month outlook, cash and the ghost-kitchen expansion

Last 12 months from Xero and the balance sheet · trailing 28 days (8 Aug 2026 – 4 Sep 2026) from the Butter database · next 12 months (Sep 2026 – Aug 2027) from the model

Group EBITDA, next 12 months
Rp 3.7 bn
after central costs
Free cash from operations, next 12 months
Rp 4.5 bn
EBITDA plus rent already prepaid, less maintenance capex, tax top-up and working capital
Group EBITDA with the Umalas + Uluwatu expansion
Rp 5.7 bn
+Rp 2.0 bn; capex placeholder 1,000

Rp millions unless marked bn. Prepaid-rent renewals (Rp 2.3 bn) are funded with new capital and shown on their own slide, outside free cash from operations. Yellow = placeholder.

1 · Where the cash went

Cash flow over the last 12 months

Cash Connor put in, net, last 12 months
Rp 0.68 bn
Outstanding to Connor, 31 Aug 2026
Rp 6.23 bn
Outstanding to Gregory, 31 Aug 2026
Rp 15.28 bn

Sources and uses of cash, Sep 2025 → Aug 2026

Rp M
Operating
EBITDA (Xero P&L, 12 months)1,298
Prepaid rent consumed (rent expensed, no cash out)1,288
Working capital (payables, receivables, tax accruals)−47
Asset sales, disposals and other46
Operating2,585
Investing
Equipment purchases (computer 353, office/warehouse 177, outlet/kitchen 239)−769
Loans to sister companies (Taco Kitchen Indonesia 112, Manhattan Slice 86)−198
Investing−966
Financing
Connor — capital contributed, net of repayments684
2021/22 tax-audit liability settled−1,063
Pererenan rent and working-capital loans repaid−591
TKC working-capital loan repaid to Gregory−238
PB1 arrears settled−206
Vehicle finance (principal and interest)−41
Financing−1,454
Change in bank balances165
Bank balances, 30 Sep 2025 → 31 Aug 2026181 → 346

Bank balances at month-end

0100200300400Sep-25Sep-25 · Bank balances: 181 Rp MOct-25Oct-25 · Bank balances: 144 Rp MNov-25Nov-25 · Bank balances: 195 Rp MDec-25Dec-25 · Bank balances: 162 Rp MJan-26Jan-26 · Bank balances: 153 Rp MFeb-26Feb-26 · Bank balances: 139 Rp MMar-26Mar-26 · Bank balances: 356 Rp MApr-26Apr-26 · Bank balances: 264 Rp MMay-26May-26 · Bank balances: 258 Rp MJun-26Jun-26 · Bank balances: 225 Rp MJul-26Jul-26 · Bank balances: 354 Rp MAug-26Aug-26 · Bank balances: 346 Rp M

Built from the balance-sheet movements, so it ties to the change in bank balances. Connor's line is everything he put in less everything repaid to him. Last year's cash went to settling the tax audit, the Pererenan and TKC loans and PB1 arrears, and to equipment.

2 · Outlets · Sinamon

SBL — Sinamon Uluwatu

Revenue, last 28 days
451
5.1% vs the 28 days before · 3,757 orders
EBITDA, last 28 days
169
37.5% margin
Revenue, next 12 months
5,870
last 12 months 4,205
EBITDA, next 12 months
2,125
36.2% margin, before central costs

Revenue by channel

Last 28dvs prior 28dLast 12mNext 12m
In-store20414%1,8012,474
GrabFood172−1%1,5752,408
GoFood56−1%585740
Online store12−16%83161
Wholesale70%16187
Gross revenue4515%4,2055,870

P&L

Last 28dNext 12m% of revenue
PB1 and platform commissions / promos−61−857−15%
Net revenue3905,01385%
Food, packaging and payment fees−126−1,652−28%
Gross profit2633,36157%
Outlet opex (payroll, rent, utilities, supplies)−70−912−16%
Platform marketing (Grab CPA and ads, GoFood ads)−24−324−6%
Outlet EBITDA, before central costs1692,12536%

Monthly EBITDA, next 12 months

0100200300Sep-26Sep-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 189 Rp MOct-26Oct-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 180 Rp MNov-26Nov-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 137 Rp MDec-26Dec-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 158 Rp MJan-27Jan-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 173 Rp MFeb-27Feb-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 150 Rp MMar-27Mar-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 168 Rp MApr-27Apr-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 195 Rp MMay-27May-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 202 Rp MJun-27Jun-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 190 Rp MJul-27Jul-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 203 Rp MAug-27Aug-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 181 Rp M

Rent. 18.4/month, prepaid until Oct 2026 (≈37 still prepaid at 31 Aug). 5-year renewal at 280/yr = 1,400; six instalments Oct-26 → Mar-27: 1,400 of new capital — see the prepaid-rent slide.

2 · Outlets · Sinamon

SBM — Sinamon Ubud (Monkey Forest)

Revenue, last 28 days
376
−3.9% vs the 28 days before · 3,201 orders
EBITDA, last 28 days
143
38.2% margin
Revenue, next 12 months
5,080
last 12 months 3,547
EBITDA, next 12 months
1,931
38.0% margin, before central costs

Revenue by channel

Last 28dvs prior 28dLast 12mNext 12m
In-store202−0%1,7942,608
GrabFood99−8%1,0571,440
GoFood393%399516
Online store15−14%94226
Wholesale20−20%202290
Gross revenue376−4%3,5475,080

P&L

Last 28dNext 12m% of revenue
PB1 and platform commissions / promos−44−631−12%
Net revenue3324,44988%
Food, packaging and payment fees−104−1,403−28%
Gross profit2283,04660%
Outlet opex (payroll, rent, utilities, supplies)−67−878−17%
Platform marketing (Grab CPA and ads, GoFood ads)−17−236−5%
Outlet EBITDA, before central costs1431,93138%

Monthly EBITDA, next 12 months

050100150200Sep-26Sep-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 172 Rp MOct-26Oct-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 164 Rp MNov-26Nov-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 125 Rp MDec-26Dec-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 144 Rp MJan-27Jan-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 158 Rp MFeb-27Feb-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 136 Rp MMar-27Mar-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 153 Rp MApr-27Apr-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 177 Rp MMay-27May-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 183 Rp MJun-27Jun-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 172 Rp MJul-27Jul-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 184 Rp MAug-27Aug-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 164 Rp M

Rent. 22.9/month, prepaid until 30 Sep 2027 (≈298 still prepaid at 31 Aug). Not renewed in the model (expires after the horizon): 0 of new capital.

2 · Outlets · Sinamon

SBU — Sinamon Umalas

Revenue, last 28 days
641
9.0% vs the 28 days before · 3,973 orders
EBITDA, last 28 days
199
31.1% margin
Revenue, next 12 months
8,204
last 12 months 6,456
EBITDA, next 12 months
2,515
30.7% margin, before central costs

Revenue by channel

Last 28dvs prior 28dLast 12mNext 12m
In-store13914%1,5821,774
GrabFood26319%2,1743,154
GoFood1287%1,4981,689
Online store60−21%580978
Wholesale504%622609
Gross revenue6419%6,4568,204

P&L

Last 28dNext 12m% of revenue
PB1 and platform commissions / promos−101−1,323−16%
Net revenue5396,88184%
Food, packaging and payment fees−187−2,394−29%
Gross profit3534,48755%
Outlet opex (payroll, rent, utilities, supplies)−94−1,220−15%
Platform marketing (Grab CPA and ads, GoFood ads)−60−752−9%
Outlet EBITDA, before central costs1992,51531%

Monthly EBITDA, next 12 months

0100200300Sep-26Sep-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 222 Rp MOct-26Oct-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 211 Rp MNov-26Nov-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 159 Rp MDec-26Dec-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 185 Rp MJan-27Jan-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 204 Rp MFeb-27Feb-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 175 Rp MMar-27Mar-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 198 Rp MApr-27Apr-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 232 Rp MMay-27May-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 241 Rp MJun-27Jun-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 226 Rp MJul-27Jul-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 243 Rp MAug-27Aug-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 217 Rp M

Rent. 18.2/month, prepaid until 4 May 2027 (≈148 still prepaid at 31 Aug). Renew for a year; current rent + 15%; cash Mar-27: 252 of new capital — see the prepaid-rent slide.

2 · Outlets · Sinamon + Taco Kitchen + Doughboys

GKP — Ghost Kitchen Pererenan

Revenue, last 28 days
1,092
2.6% vs the 28 days before · 5,536 orders
EBITDA, last 28 days
274
25.1% margin
Revenue, next 12 months
14,643
last 12 months 11,741
EBITDA, next 12 months
3,659
25.0% margin, before central costs

Revenue by channel

Last 28dvs prior 28dLast 12mNext 12m
In-store166−5%1,9872,301
GrabFood51713%4,6046,493
GoFood343−4%4,4414,927
Online store48−11%468650
Wholesale18−17%241272
Gross revenue1,0923%11,74114,643

P&L

Last 28dNext 12m% of revenue
PB1 and platform commissions / promos−222−3,074−21%
Partner commission and Sidewalk fee−42−562−4%
Net revenue82911,00775%
Food, packaging and payment fees−319−4,276−29%
Gross profit5106,73246%
Outlet opex (payroll, rent, utilities, supplies)−158−2,058−14%
Platform marketing (Grab CPA and ads, GoFood ads)−78−1,015−7%
Outlet EBITDA, before central costs2743,65925%

Monthly EBITDA, next 12 months

0100200300400Sep-26Sep-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 325 Rp MOct-26Oct-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 308 Rp MNov-26Nov-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 229 Rp MDec-26Dec-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 268 Rp MJan-27Jan-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 297 Rp MFeb-27Feb-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 254 Rp MMar-27Mar-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 288 Rp MApr-27Apr-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 339 Rp MMay-27May-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 353 Rp MJun-27Jun-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 330 Rp MJul-27Jul-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 354 Rp MAug-27Aug-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 315 Rp M

Rent. 23.3/month, prepaid until Dec 2027 (≈373 still prepaid at 31 Aug). Next year ≈300 falls due within 6 months; Feb-27: 300 of new capital — see the prepaid-rent slide.

Partner commission. 5% of net revenue after PB1, commissions and promos: ≈42 in the last 28 days, 562 over the next 12 months.

Brands, last 28 days. Sinamon 245 · Taco Kitchen 411 · Doughboys 203 of delivery — the added brands do 2.5× Sinamon from the same kitchen.

2 · Outlets · Sinamon + Taco Kitchen + Doughboys

SMJ — Sidewalk Mall Jimbaran

Revenue, last 28 days
511
−2.3% vs the 28 days before · 3,014 orders
EBITDA, last 28 days
59
11.6% margin
Revenue, next 12 months
6,740
last 12 months 5,122
EBITDA, next 12 months
735
10.9% margin, before central costs

Revenue by channel

Last 28dvs prior 28dLast 12mNext 12m
In-store224−8%2,2882,983
GrabFood19319%1,6922,253
GoFood77−23%1,0241,273
Online store17−7%117231
Gross revenue511−2%5,1226,740

P&L

Last 28dNext 12m% of revenue
PB1 and platform commissions / promos−79−1,094−16%
Partner commission and Sidewalk fee−91−1,194−18%
Net revenue3424,45366%
Food, packaging and payment fees−144−1,896−28%
Gross profit1982,55638%
Outlet opex (payroll, rent, utilities, supplies)−102−1,332−20%
Platform marketing (Grab CPA and ads, GoFood ads)−36−489−7%
Outlet EBITDA, before central costs5973511%

Monthly EBITDA, next 12 months

020406080Sep-26Sep-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 72 Rp MOct-26Oct-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 65 Rp MNov-26Nov-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 34 Rp MDec-26Dec-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 49 Rp MJan-27Jan-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 59 Rp MFeb-27Feb-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 42 Rp MMar-27Mar-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 55 Rp MApr-27Apr-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 73 Rp MMay-27May-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 78 Rp MJun-27Jun-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 69 Rp MJul-27Jul-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 78 Rp MAug-27Aug-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 62 Rp M

Rent. None prepaid — rent is half of the 20% partner commission.

Partner commission. 20% of net revenue after PB1, commissions and promos: ≈84 in the last 28 days, 1,098 over the next 12 months.

Brands, last 28 days. Sinamon 88 · Taco Kitchen 88 · Doughboys 93 of delivery — the added brands do 2.1× Sinamon from the same kitchen.

2 · Outlets · Taco Kitchen + Sinamon

TKU — Taco Kitchen Ubud (Tebongkang)

Revenue, last 28 days
222
−13.0% vs the 28 days before · 1,153 orders
EBITDA, last 28 days
20
8.9% margin
Revenue, next 12 months
3,270
last 12 months 2,301
EBITDA, next 12 months
370
11.3% margin, before central costs

Revenue by channel

Last 28dvs prior 28dLast 12mNext 12m
In-store87−16%1,0081,244
GrabFood120−13%1,1231,842
GoFood1515%169182
Online store0−100%11
Gross revenue222−13%2,3013,270

P&L

Last 28dNext 12m% of revenue
PB1 and platform commissions / promos−33−510−16%
Partner commission and Sidewalk fee−36−537−16%
Net revenue1522,22368%
Food, packaging and payment fees−63−932−29%
Gross profit891,29139%
Outlet opex (payroll, rent, utilities, supplies)−53−695−21%
Platform marketing (Grab CPA and ads, GoFood ads)−16−226−7%
Outlet EBITDA, before central costs2037011%

Monthly EBITDA, next 12 months

010203040Sep-26Sep-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 36 Rp MOct-26Oct-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 32 Rp MNov-26Nov-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 17 Rp MDec-26Dec-26 · Outlet EBITDA: 24 Rp MJan-27Jan-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 30 Rp MFeb-27Feb-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 21 Rp MMar-27Mar-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 28 Rp MApr-27Apr-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 37 Rp MMay-27May-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 40 Rp MJun-27Jun-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 35 Rp MJul-27Jul-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 40 Rp MAug-27Aug-27 · Outlet EBITDA: 32 Rp M

Rent. None prepaid — rent is half of the 20% partner commission.

Partner commission. 20% of net revenue after PB1, commissions and promos: ≈36 in the last 28 days, 537 over the next 12 months.

Brands, last 28 days. Sinamon 43 · Taco Kitchen 92 · Doughboys 0 of delivery — the added brands do 2.1× Sinamon from the same kitchen.

3 · Central

Central costs (head office, central kitchen, warehouse)

Central costs per month
638
7,661 a year · 17.5% of revenue
Of which marketing
195
CMO / agency 75 + Meta and Google 120
Of which payroll
213
head office, central kitchen, warehouse

Budget by line (Rp M / month)

12m avgLast 3mBudget
Central payroll (HO, central kitchen, warehouse)288.6213.2213.2
HO / warehouse rent11.88.58.5
Professional & legal2.50.00.0
Office, telephone, printing, transport, travel5.69.09.0
Utilities, cleaning, ceremony (central)13.414.914.9
Bank charges, other taxes, VAT non-COGS, misc19.218.918.9
Repairs & maintenance (central)9.820.420.4
Subscriptions & software20.445.845.8
Insurance14.419.219.2
Logistics, freight & courier30.435.035.0
Kitchen, bar, customer & cleaning supplies41.458.558.5
Contract CMO / agency / other marketing44.696.975.0
Meta + Google ad spend128.7161.8120.0
Central costs per month630.9702.1638.4

Central opex by month, last 12 months (Xero)

02505007501,000Sep-25Sep-25 · Central opex: 474 Rp MOct-25Oct-25 · Central opex: 516 Rp MNov-25Nov-25 · Central opex: 444 Rp MDec-25Dec-25 · Central opex: 438 Rp MJan-26Jan-26 · Central opex: 491 Rp MFeb-26Feb-26 · Central opex: 405 Rp MMar-26Mar-26 · Central opex: 647 Rp MApr-26Apr-26 · Central opex: 522 Rp MMay-26May-26 · Central opex: 727 Rp MJun-26Jun-26 · Central opex: 564 Rp MJul-26Jul-26 · Central opex: 729 Rp MAug-26Aug-26 · Central opex: 814 Rp M

Payroll, telephone and bank at the Jun–Aug average; other lines at the 12-month average; marketing capped at 195 (it ran 259 in Jun–Aug). Central costs are not allocated to outlets.

4 · Summary

Group EBITDA — last 28 days and next 12 months

Group EBITDA, last 28 days
277
outlets 865 less central 587
Group EBITDA, next 12 months
Rp 3.67 bn
outlets 11,335 less central 7,661
Free cash from operations, next 12 months
Rp 4.47 bn
EBITDA + rent already prepaid 1,154 − maintenance capex 216 − tax top-up 136 ± working capital

By outlet

28d revenue28d EBITDA12m revenue12m EBITDA
SBL · Sinamon Uluwatu45116937%5,8702,12536%
SBM · Sinamon Ubud (Monkey Forest)37614338%5,0801,93138%
SBU · Sinamon Umalas64119931%8,2042,51531%
GKP · Ghost Kitchen Pererenan1,09227425%14,6433,65925%
SMJ · Sidewalk Mall Jimbaran5115912%6,74073511%
TKU · Taco Kitchen Ubud (Tebongkang)222209%3,27037011%
Outlets3,29386526%43,80611,33526%
Central−587−7,661
Group EBITDA2778%3,6748%

Last 28 days = actual revenue at the model's cost rates. SMJ and TKU are thin because the 20% partner commission includes their rent.

Group EBITDA by month — Xero actual, then the model

−400−2000200400600Sep-25Sep-25 · Xero actual: 90 Rp MOct-25 · Xero actual: −76 Rp MNov-25Nov-25 · Xero actual: −85 Rp MDec-25 · Xero actual: −183 Rp MJan-26Jan-26 · Xero actual: −125 Rp MFeb-26 · Xero actual: −110 Rp MMar-26Mar-26 · Xero actual: −248 Rp MApr-26 · Xero actual: 283 Rp MMay-26May-26 · Xero actual: 342 Rp MJun-26 · Xero actual: 452 Rp MJul-26Jul-26 · Xero actual: 443 Rp MAug-26 · Xero actual: 515 Rp MSep-26Sep-26 · Model: 377 Rp MOct-26 · Model: 320 Rp MNov-26Nov-26 · Model: 64 Rp MDec-26 · Model: 190 Rp MJan-27Jan-27 · Model: 282 Rp MFeb-27 · Model: 140 Rp MMar-27Mar-27 · Model: 251 Rp MApr-27 · Model: 414 Rp MMay-27May-27 · Model: 459 Rp MJun-27 · Model: 383 Rp MJul-27Jul-27 · Model: 462 Rp MAug-27 · Model: 333 Rp MXero actualModel

Xero's last three months already run at 470/month (≈Rp 5.6 bn a year). The model sits below that because it carries food cost at 27% all-in, PB1 rising to 80%, seasonality (Nov and Feb near breakeven) and less marketing.

Next 12 months by month

Sep-26Oct-26Nov-26Dec-26Jan-27Feb-27Mar-27Apr-27May-27Jun-27Jul-27Aug-27FY
Revenue3,7503,6383,0873,3703,5833,2783,5313,9024,0123,8534,0413,76243,806
Outlet EBITDA1,0159597038289217788891,0521,0971,0211,10197111,335
Central costs−638−638−638−638−638−638−638−638−638−638−638−638−7,661
Group EBITDA377320641902821402514144593834623333,674
+ Rent already prepaid (in EBITDA, no cash out)9696969696969696969696961,154
− Maintenance capex, tax top-up, working capital−34−26−13−38−36−20−37−40−33−25−35−21−357
Free cash from operations4383911482483432163104705224545234084,471

Rent is expensed in EBITDA but was paid up front, so it is added back; the renewals themselves are funded with new capital — see the next slide.

5 · Leases

Prepaid rent — upcoming renewals

Prepaid-rent renewals, Sep-26 → Aug-27
Rp 2.30 bn
new capital; outside free cash from operations
Free cash from operations, Sep-26 → Aug-27
Rp 4.47 bn
available towards the prepaid rent
Prepaid rent on the balance sheet, 31 Aug 2026
963
consumed at −117/month

Upcoming rent obligations

SiteCurrent lease endsRent / month nowRenewalCash neededWhen
SBL · UluwatuOct 202618.45-year renewal at 280/yr = 1,400; six instalments Oct-26 → Mar-271,400Oct-26 → Mar-27
SBU · Umalas4 May 202718.2Renew for a year; current rent + 15%; cash Mar-27252Mar-27
GKP · PererenanDec 202723.3Next year ≈300 falls due within 6 months; Feb-27300Feb-27
SGI/HO · Warehouse / head office31 Jul 20278.53-year renewal at current rent + 15%; paid Jun–Aug 27352Jun-27, Jul-27, Aug-27
Prepaid rent to fund in the year2,304

Prepaid rent by month

0200400600Sep-26Oct-26Oct-26 · SBL: 233 Rp MNov-26Nov-26 · SBL: 233 Rp MDec-26Dec-26 · SBL: 233 Rp MJan-27Jan-27 · SBL: 233 Rp MFeb-27Feb-27 · SBL: 233 Rp MFeb-27 · GKP: 300 Rp MMar-27Mar-27 · SBL: 233 Rp MMar-27 · SBU: 252 Rp MApr-27May-27Jun-27Jun-27 · SGI/HO: 117 Rp MJul-27Jul-27 · SGI/HO: 117 Rp MAug-27Aug-27 · SGI/HO: 117 Rp MSBLSBUGKPSGI/HO

Yellow renewals assume current rent + 15% until the landlord quotes arrive. SBM's lease runs to Sep-27 and is not renewed in the model; SMJ and TKU pay rent through the partner commission.

6 · Capex placeholders

Expansion capex — SBL and SBU

Estimated capex — to fill in

ItemSBL · UluwatuSBU · Umalas
Kitchen equipment for the Taco Kitchen lineTBDTBD
Pizza oven and dough station for DoughboysTBDTBD
Extraction, ventilation and gasTBDTBD
Electrical and lightingTBDTBD
Build-out, storage, delivery pick-up pointTBDTBD
Smallwares and initial packaging stockTBDTBD
Signage, brand kits, photography, platform listingsTBDTBD
Tablets, printers, networkTBDTBD
ContingencyTBDTBD
Total capex placeholder (excludes prepaid rent)500500

Capex in Oct-26, launch Nov-26, six-month ramp. Launch marketing and extra payroll are in opex, not capex.

What each conversion earns

SBL · UluwatuSBU · Umalas
Extra revenue per month at steady state381486
Extra EBITDA per month at steady state122165
Extra EBITDA in the model year9151,264
Payback on 500 capexMay-27Apr-27

GKP delivery revenue by brand, last 12 months

02505007501,000Sep-25Sep-25 · Sinamon: 90 Rp MSep-25 · Taco Kitchen: 190 Rp MSep-25 · Doughboys: 82 Rp MOct-25Oct-25 · Sinamon: 155 Rp MOct-25 · Taco Kitchen: 338 Rp MOct-25 · Doughboys: 137 Rp MNov-25Nov-25 · Sinamon: 143 Rp MNov-25 · Taco Kitchen: 292 Rp MNov-25 · Doughboys: 141 Rp MDec-25Dec-25 · Sinamon: 146 Rp MDec-25 · Taco Kitchen: 257 Rp MDec-25 · Doughboys: 203 Rp MJan-26Jan-26 · Sinamon: 161 Rp MJan-26 · Taco Kitchen: 239 Rp MJan-26 · Doughboys: 254 Rp MFeb-26Feb-26 · Sinamon: 217 Rp MFeb-26 · Taco Kitchen: 267 Rp MFeb-26 · Doughboys: 237 Rp MMar-26Mar-26 · Sinamon: 228 Rp MMar-26 · Taco Kitchen: 289 Rp MMar-26 · Doughboys: 242 Rp MApr-26Apr-26 · Sinamon: 265 Rp MApr-26 · Taco Kitchen: 345 Rp MApr-26 · Doughboys: 243 Rp MMay-26May-26 · Sinamon: 281 Rp MMay-26 · Taco Kitchen: 351 Rp MMay-26 · Doughboys: 264 Rp MJun-26Jun-26 · Sinamon: 273 Rp MJun-26 · Taco Kitchen: 359 Rp MJun-26 · Doughboys: 278 Rp MJul-26Jul-26 · Sinamon: 280 Rp MJul-26 · Taco Kitchen: 405 Rp MJul-26 · Doughboys: 270 Rp MAug-26Aug-26 · Sinamon: 255 Rp MAug-26 · Taco Kitchen: 425 Rp MAug-26 · Doughboys: 218 Rp MSinamonTaco KitchenDoughboys

At Pererenan, Taco Kitchen + Doughboys deliver 2.4× Sinamon's delivery from one kitchen. The model assumes only 1.5× at Uluwatu and 1.2× at Umalas.

7 · Expansion

Projection with the SBL and SBU expansion

Group EBITDA with expansion
Rp 5.71 bn
vs Rp 3.67 bn base
Extra EBITDA per month at steady state
270
Umalas 165 + Uluwatu 122 − Pererenan cannibalisation 17
Payback on 500 capex each
Apr-27 / May-27
Umalas / Uluwatu; launch Nov-26

Next 12 months, base vs expansion

BaseExpansionΔ
Revenue43,80650,4466,640
Outlet EBITDA11,33513,3742,039
Central costs−7,661−7,6610
Group EBITDA3,6745,7132,039
Free cash from operations4,4716,4862,014
Expansion capex (placeholder)0−1,000−1,000
Free cash after expansion capex4,4715,4861,014

Extra from each outlet

Revenue, yearEBITDA, yearEBITDA / month at steady statePayback
SBU · Sinamon Umalas3,9421,264165Apr-27
SBL · Sinamon Uluwatu3,092915122May-27
GKP · Ghost Kitchen Pererenan−394−140−17—
Total6,6402,039270

Sensitivities, next 12 months

Group EBITDAFree cash from operations
Base3,6744,471
Base — food cost 33%1,2572,055
Base — PB1 held at 68%3,9124,710
Expansion5,7136,486
Expansion — food cost 33%2,9343,707

Group EBITDA by month

0200400600800Sep-26Oct-26Nov-26Dec-26Jan-27Feb-27Mar-27Apr-27May-27Jun-27Jul-27Aug-27Sep-26 · Base: 377 Rp MOct-26 · Base: 320 Rp MNov-26 · Base: 64 Rp MDec-26 · Base: 190 Rp MJan-27 · Base: 282 Rp MFeb-27 · Base: 140 Rp MMar-27 · Base: 251 Rp MApr-27 · Base: 414 Rp MMay-27 · Base: 459 Rp MJun-27 · Base: 383 Rp MJul-27 · Base: 462 Rp MAug-27 · Base: 333 Rp M333Sep-26 · Expansion: 377 Rp MOct-26 · Expansion: 320 Rp MNov-26 · Expansion: 68 Rp MDec-26 · Expansion: 271 Rp MJan-27 · Expansion: 419 Rp MFeb-27 · Expansion: 316 Rp MMar-27 · Expansion: 473 Rp MApr-27 · Expansion: 697 Rp MMay-27 · Expansion: 751 Rp MJun-27 · Expansion: 661 Rp MJul-27 · Expansion: 756 Rp MAug-27 · Expansion: 603 Rp M603BaseExpansion

Cumulative free cash (expansion after capex)

−2,00002,0004,0006,000Sep-26Oct-26Nov-26Dec-26Jan-27Feb-27Mar-27Apr-27May-27Jun-27Jul-27Aug-27Sep-26 · Base: 438 Rp MOct-26 · Base: 829 Rp MNov-26 · Base: 977 Rp MDec-26 · Base: 1,225 Rp MJan-27 · Base: 1,568 Rp MFeb-27 · Base: 1,784 Rp MMar-27 · Base: 2,094 Rp MApr-27 · Base: 2,564 Rp MMay-27 · Base: 3,086 Rp MJun-27 · Base: 3,540 Rp MJul-27 · Base: 4,063 Rp MAug-27 · Base: 4,471 Rp M4,471Sep-26 · Expansion: 438 Rp MOct-26 · Expansion: −171 Rp MNov-26 · Expansion: −25 Rp MDec-26 · Expansion: 299 Rp MJan-27 · Expansion: 774 Rp MFeb-27 · Expansion: 1,165 Rp MMar-27 · Expansion: 1,694 Rp MApr-27 · Expansion: 2,442 Rp MMay-27 · Expansion: 3,256 Rp MJun-27 · Expansion: 3,990 Rp MJul-27 · Expansion: 4,806 Rp MAug-27 · Expansion: 5,486 Rp M5,486BaseExpansion

Umalas and Uluwatu add Taco Kitchen + Doughboys as delivery brands from the existing kitchen, ramping over six months from Nov-26, with Pererenan's marketing rates, +20/month payroll and 5% self-cannibalisation; Pererenan loses 10% of Umalas's new-brand revenue. Not modelled: kitchen capacity, staffing limits, the actual capex.

By month

Sep-26Oct-26Nov-26Dec-26Jan-27Feb-27Mar-27Apr-27May-27Jun-27Jul-27Aug-27FY
Group EBITDA — base377320641902821402514144593834623333,674
Group EBITDA — expansion377320682714193164736977516617566035,713
Free cash from operations — base4383911482483432163104705224545234084,471
Free cash after capex — expansion438−6091463244753915297488147348166805,486
Appendix

Basis and open items

How the numbers are built

  • Revenue: Jun–Aug 2026 run-rate per outlet and channel × seasonality × growth of 0.5% (in-store) to 1% (delivery, online) a month.
  • Food cost 27% of revenue ex-PB1; PB1 at 68% compliance rising to 80% by Aug-27; Grab, GoFood and card fees at the rates seen in settlements.
  • Partner commission GKP 5%, SMJ 20%, TKU 20% of net revenue (SMJ and TKU pay rent inside it).
  • Outlet opex per line from Xero; central 638/month, not allocated to outlets.
  • Free cash from operations = group EBITDA + P&L rent already prepaid (96/month) − maintenance capex 18/month − tax top-up 11/month ± working capital. Prepaid-rent renewals are funded with new capital and sit outside it. The BRI loans are Connor's capital: no interest or principal in the model.
  • Last 28 days = actual orders 8 Aug 2026 – 4 Sep 2026 at the model's cost rates, fixed costs pro-rated; PB1 at 68%.

Still to confirm

  • Lease quotes for Umalas (May-27) and the warehouse (Jul-27); both assumed at current rent + 15%.
  • Expansion capex for Uluwatu and Umalas (500 each placeholder, excluding prepaid rent).
  • PB1 policy: holding 68% adds ≈239; full compliance by Feb-27 would cost ≈750.
  • Food cost: every point above 27% costs ≈403 a year.

Sources: Butter database, PlusOne finance database (GoFood payouts, ad spend), Xero P&L Sep-25 → Aug-26, balance sheet at 31 Aug 2026. Workbook: SGI_12M_Projection_Sep26-Aug27.xlsx. Generated 05 Sep 2026.

· IDR / USD